A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
